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The markets saw a follow through rally yesterday, led by short covering and some hope that things are getting better. This morning we had jobless numbers from the Labor Department, putting the unemployment rate at 8.5%, with 663K lost in March. It is worth noting that January's job loss numbers were revised higher by almost 90K, to 741K from 655K These numbers were pretty much in-line. There is also news this morning that mortgage delinquencies of ALL residential mortgages, has gone up to a little bit above 10%. While we agree that there have been a few encouraging signs that the economy my be bottoming, we feel the market has really gotten ahead of itself. It is human nature to quickly grasp on to a few positive signs and turn hopeful, and this is what we have been seeing. That being said, momentum and greed, as in investors not wanting to miss the boat, could fuel the market to continue to move higher. However, we believe yesterday's trading activity showed signs of the current rally running out of steam. We believe the right trade is trading this market from the short side. We would look for a rally up to the 845-852 area on the S&P as an area to short into. If you choose to sell into the market at lower levels, be aware that momentum could carry the markets up to those levels before hitting a real wall. Currently, futures are pointing to a lower opening:
Futures Glance:
Index |
Futures
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Fair Value
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+/- FairValue
|
|
Dow Jones
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-44.00
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-23.92
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-20.08
|
|
S&P 500
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-4.70
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-3.87
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-0.83
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NASDAQ
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+0.20
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-6.30
|
+6.50
|
Picks Sheet Notes:
No Current Positions. Stay Tuned
This Mornings POI's (Points of Interest):
RIMM - Beat by $0.06; Beat on Revenue; Raised Q1 EPS and Revenue guidance above consensus; Currently trading up 24.4% or $12.00 Pre-Mkt
Upgrades/Downgrades/Initiations/Reiterations
Upgrades:
Symbol |
Firm
|
Rating Change
|
Price Target
|
|
STD
|
Keefe Bruyette
|
Neutral to Overweight
|
|
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DVN
|
FBR Capital Markets
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Mkt Perform to Outperform
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$50 to $60
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ELN
|
Piper Jaffray
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Sell to Neutral
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FTI
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Jefferies & Co
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Hold to Buy
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$27 to $45
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MXB
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Brean Murray
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Hold to Buy
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$25
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PT
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Credit Suisse
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Underperform to Neutral
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|
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RIMM
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Deutsche Securities
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Sell to Hold
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$30 to $56
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RIMM
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CIBC Wrld Mkts
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Sector Perform to Sector Outperform
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|
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RIMM
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Credit Suisse
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Underperform to Neutral
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$61
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RIMM
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BMO Capital Markets
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Market Perform to Outperform
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VRNT
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RBC Capital Mkts
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Sector Perform to Outperform
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VOD
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Credit Suisse
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Neutral to Outperform
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$5 to $6
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Downgrades:
Symbol |
Firm
|
Rating Change
|
Price Target
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AAP
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Argus
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Buy to Sell
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AKAM
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Citigroup
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Buy to Hold
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$22
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ALKS
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Roth Capital
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Buy to Hold
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|
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ARQL
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UBS
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Buy to Neutral
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|
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BBBB
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Canaccord Adams
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Buy to Hold
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BMC
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MKM Partners
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Buy to Neutral
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BMY
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Bernstein
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Outperform to Mkt Perform
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KMX
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Wachovia
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Mkt Perform to Underperform
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DMAN
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Wedbush Morgan
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Buy to Hold
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$10 to $9.50
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DLTR
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Barclays Capital
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Overweight to Equal Weight
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FHN
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Citigroup
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Buy to Hold
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$12
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GET
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Wachovia
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Outperform to Mkt Perform
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GOL
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JP Morgan
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Overweight to Underweight
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HGSI
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Bernstein
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Outperform to Mkt Perform
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MANH
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Oppenheimer
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Perform to Underperform
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MON
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JP Morgan
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Overweight to Neutral
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N
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Canaccord Adams
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Buy to Hold
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PENN
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Brean Murray
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Buy to Hold
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RCRC
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Caris & Company
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Buy to Average
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SCHN
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UBS
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Neutral to Sell
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|
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SFSF
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Canaccord Adams
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Hold to Sell
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UA
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Susquehanna Financial
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Neutral to Negative
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DIS
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JP Morgan
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Overweight to Neutral
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WNR
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Soleil
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Buy to Hold
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$14
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WFMI
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Jefferies & Co
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Buy to Hold
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$13 to $18
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ZEP
|
Janney Mntgmy Scott
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Buy to Neutral
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ZGEN
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UBS
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Buy to Neutral
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Initiations:
Symbol |
Firm
|
Rating
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Price Target
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BIG
|
Barclays Capital
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Overweight
|
|
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EAT
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MKM Partners
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Neutral
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CMA
|
Sterne Agee
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Neutral
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$20
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CXW
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Davenport
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Neutral
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CVBF
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Stifel Nicolaus
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Hold
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DPS
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Barclays Capital
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Overweight
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$25
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ENSG
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Oppenheimer
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Outperform
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$22
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ESLR
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Canaccord Adams
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Sell
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FCN
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Janney Mntgmy Scott
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Buy
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KSS
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MKM Partners
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Buy
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$54
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MD
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William Blair
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Outperform
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|
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ORA
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Jefferies & Co
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Buy
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$33
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ROST
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RBC Capital Mkts
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Sector Perform
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POOL
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Longbow
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Neutral
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SKH
|
Oppenheimer
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Outperform
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$13
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SFG
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Wunderlich
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Hold
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$25
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SPWRA
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Canaccord Adams
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Hold
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SKT
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RBC Capital Mkts
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Outperform
|
|
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TDC
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Thomas Weisel
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Underweight
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$13
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TWTC
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Kaufman Bros
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Buy
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$11
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TJX
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RBC Capital Mkts
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Outperform
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Reiterations:
Symbol |
Firm
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Rating
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Price Target
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APWR
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Roth Capital
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Hold
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$6 to $5
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AHR
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FBR Capital Markets
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Mkt Perform
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$2.50 to $0.50
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ADSK
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KeyBanc Capital Mkts
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Underweight
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$10 to $12
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CAE
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Rodman & Renshaw
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Mkt Outperform
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$40 to $25
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CHS
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FBR Capital Markets
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Outperform
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$6 to $8
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CME
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Jefferies & Co
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Hold
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$190 to $230
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CTV
|
Jefferies & Co
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Buy
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$17 to $20
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GPC
|
FBR Capital Markets
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Underperform
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$22 to $25.50
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LXP
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FBR Capital Markets
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Mkt Perform
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$5 to $2
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MU
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AmTech Research
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Buy
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$4.50 to $5.70
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MU
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Credit Suisse
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Outperform
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$4 to $7
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NOK
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RBC Capital Mkts
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Outperform
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$12 to $16
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NSC
|
Longbow
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Buy
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$59 to $58
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PII
|
Wedbush Morgan
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Hold
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$18 to $26
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RIMM
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Global Crown Capital
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Overweight
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$59 to $95
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RIMM
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Oppenheimer
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Outperform
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$50 to $70
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RIMM
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Caris & Company
|
Buy
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$60 to $80
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RIMM
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Kaufman Bros
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Hold
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$50 to $64
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RIMM
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RBC Capital Mkts
|
Outperform
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$75 to $80
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RKT
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Longbow
|
Buy
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$44 to $40
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