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Although we closed lower yesterday, the markets once again rallied off of their lows. We seem to be in a sideways trade, with the markets trying to decide which way they want to go. Which way we ultimately breakout to is anyone's guess. We believe the market will trend lower as we enter the Q1 EPS season, if nothing else, out of fear of how bad the numbers/guidance might be. Upside surprises however could quickly turn the momentum back up. For now, unless the markets breakout above the 845-852 area on the S&P, we believe playing the markets from the short side is the right trade as buyers have taken a break. There is good support in the 817-820 area on the S&P, and we would use this area as a first level to take some profits, but carefully watch for a breakout below this area, as this would confirm a negative bias leading to further downside. As always, use stops you are comfortable with. Currently, futures are pointing to a lower opening:
Futures Glance:
Index |
Futures
|
Fair Value
|
+/- FairValue
|
|
Dow Jones
|
-115.00
|
+14.85
|
-129.85
|
|
S&P 500
|
-14.30
|
+2.33
|
-16.63
|
|
NASDAQ
|
-17.80
|
+2.00
|
-19.80
|
Picks Sheet Notes:
No open positions. Stay Tuned, we will be sending out a special message regarding the Picks Sheet today!
This Mornings POI's (Points of Interest):
EAT- Brinker raised Q309 EPS guidance and reported strong preliminary comparable store sales; Currently trading up about 8.0% or $1.30 Pre-Mkt
FNFG- Company has announced it will acquired $4.2 Billion of deposits and 57 bank branches from National City, for a deposit premium of 1.3%; Currently trading up about 13.4% or $1.50 Pre-Mkt
Upgrades/Downgrades/Initiations/Reiterations
Upgrades:
Symbol |
Firm
|
Rating Change
|
Price Target
|
|
ADBE
|
RBC Capital Mkts
|
Neutral to Overweight
|
$23 to $30
|
|
AXP
|
Citigroup
|
Sell to Hold
|
$9 to $16
|
|
EAT
|
Wachovia
|
Mkt Perform to Outperform
|
|
|
CNQR
|
RBC Capital Mkts
|
Underperform to Sector Perform
|
|
|
DRIV
|
RBC Capital Mkts
|
Sector Perform to Outperform
|
$25 to $40
|
|
GMR
|
JP Morgan
|
Neutral to Overweight
|
|
|
MSFT
|
RBC Capital Mkts
|
Sector Perform to Outperform
|
$20 to $27
|
|
OMTR
|
RBC Capital Mkts
|
Sector Perform to Outperform
|
$11 to $18
|
|
PTV
|
Longbow
|
Neutral to Buy
|
$26
|
|
PCG
|
Credit Suisse
|
Neutral to Outperform
|
|
|
PVCT
|
Rodman & Renshaw
|
Mkt Perform to Mkt Outperform
|
$4
|
|
CRM
|
RBC Capital Mkts
|
Sector Perform to Outperform
|
$37 to $45
|
|
SUN
|
JP Morgan
|
Neutral to Overweight
|
|
|
SYMC
|
RBC Capital Mkts
|
Sector Perform to Outperform
|
$17 to $20
|
|
TLEO
|
RBC Capital Mkts
|
Sector Perform to Outperform
|
$12 to $16
|
Downgrades:
Symbol |
Firm
|
Rating Change
|
Price Target
|
|
ALKS
|
Leerink Swann
|
Outperform to Mkt Perform
|
|
|
AMX
|
Thomas Weisel
|
Overweight to Underweight
|
$40 to $23
|
|
AMLN
|
Leerink Swann
|
Outperform to Mkt Perform
|
$15.50 to $8.50
|
|
ADM
|
Citigroup
|
Hold to Sell
|
|
|
CBT
|
JP Morgan
|
Neutral to Underweight
|
|
|
ED
|
Credit Suisse
|
Outperform to Neutral
|
|
|
CFR
|
Oppenheimer
|
Perform to Underperform
|
|
|
DUK
|
Credit Suisse
|
Outperform to Neutral
|
|
|
LLY
|
Leerink Swann
|
Mkt Perform to Underperform
|
|
|
EL
|
UBS
|
Neutral to Sell
|
|
|
GGP
|
Wachovia
|
Outperform to Mkt Perform
|
|
|
HW
|
Canaccord Adams
|
Buy to Hold
|
|
|
IHG
|
UBS
|
Buy to Neutral
|
|
|
ISRG
|
Leerink Swann
|
Outperform to Mkt Perform
|
|
|
LYG
|
Credit Suisse
|
Neutral to Underperform
|
|
|
MGM
|
Janney Mntgmy Scott
|
Neutral to Sell
|
|
|
NIHD
|
Wachovia
|
Outperform to Mkt Perform
|
|
|
NAK
|
Canaccord Adams
|
Hold to Sell
|
|
|
OMTR
|
Citigroup
|
Buy to Hold
|
|
|
RBS
|
Bernstein
|
Outperform to Mkt Perform
|
|
|
TLEO
|
Susquehanna Financial
|
Positive to Neutral
|
|
|
URS
|
Credit Suisse
|
Outperform to Neutral
|
|
|
WMS
|
SMH Capital
|
Reduce to Sell
|
$12.50
|
Initiations:
Symbol |
Firm
|
Rating
|
Price Target
|
|
ALGT
|
Barclays Capital
|
Overweight
|
$65
|
|
ADS
|
Barclays Capital
|
Overweight
|
$48
|
|
CBSH
|
Sterne Agee
|
Neutral
|
|
|
DRC
|
Citigroup
|
Buy
|
|
|
FISV
|
Barclays Capital
|
Equal Weight
|
$41
|
|
GPN
|
Barclays Capital
|
Overweight
|
$38
|
|
HEI
|
Ladenburg Thalmann
|
Buy
|
$35
|
|
MEE
|
Standpoint
|
Buy
|
$24
|
|
NKTR
|
William Blair
|
Outperform
|
|
|
NFLX
|
Thomas Weisel
|
Overweight
|
$51
|
|
NTLS
|
Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey
|
Buy
|
$24
|
|
PWE
|
Canaccord Adams
|
Hold
|
|
|
TDS
|
Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey
|
Neutral
|
|
|
TSS
|
Barclays Capital
|
Underweight
|
$12
|
|
USM
|
Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey
|
Neutral
|
|
|
WU
|
Barclays Capital
|
Overweight
|
$19
|
Reiterations:
Symbol |
Firm
|
Rating
|
Price Target
|
|
BRCM
|
FBR Capital Markets
|
Outperform
|
$20 to $24
|
|
CPKI
|
Jefferies & Co
|
Hold
|
$10 to $14
|
|
CLNE
|
Northland Securities
|
Outperform
|
$7 to $8.50
|
|
CVLT
|
Lazard Capital Mkts
|
Buy
|
$21 to $16
|
|
CVH
|
Leerink Swann
|
Mkt Perform
|
$14.50 to $15.50
|
|
FCEA
|
RBC Capital Mkts
|
Sector Perform
|
$10 to $6
|
|
GEF
|
KeyBanc Capital Mkts
|
Buy
|
$40 to $44
|
|
HWAY
|
Jefferies & Co
|
Hold
|
$12 to $10
|
|
HUM
|
Leerink Swann
|
Mkt Perform
|
$31 to $32
|
|
HUM
|
Credit Suisse
|
Outperform
|
$48 to $35
|
|
MRVL
|
Kaufman Bros
|
Hold
|
$8 to $9
|
|
PH
|
Credit Suisse
|
Neutral
|
$41 to $36
|
|
PDE
|
Jesup & Lamont
|
Buy
|
$28.40 to $24
|
|
SPWRA
|
FBR Capital Markets
|
Mkt Perform
|
$33 to $28
|
|
UNH
|
Leerink Swann
|
Mkt Perform
|
$23.50 to $24.50
|
|
WCG
|
Credit Suisse
|
Neutral
|
$10 to $12.50
|
|
